Q2 2025:贸易紧张、价格波动和地缘政治风险重现

I. Quarterly Snapshot: Tariffs, Tumbling Prices and a Geopolitical Shock

The second quarter of 2025 brought fresh turbulence to the global hydrocarbon market. In early April the United States announced sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports; Beijing promptly retaliated. Although energy products were mostly exempt, the prospect of a trade war immediately soured market sentiment. Brent crude plunged below US$60 per barrel—its lowest level in four years—as traders feared weaker economic growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2025 oil‑demand growth forecast by 300 kb/d to 730 kb/d, warning that escalating trade friction could depress consumption further.

Markets found temporary relief in May after the U.S. reached a trade deal with the United Kingdom on 8 May and agreed to a 90‑day tariff détente with China on 12 May. Even so, supply–demand fundamentals remained weak. Global inventories grew for a third straight month, and prices were stuck near four‑year lows. The fragile stability shattered on 13 June when Israel launched air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities; Tehran retaliated with drone and missile attacks. While infrastructure damage was limited, the risk of a wider conflict sent Brent back up to about US$74 per barrel. The quarter closed with heightened volatility and renewed focus on supply security.

II.全球碳氢化合物市场动态

原油市场分析

Demand collapse slows but growth forecasts are pared back. After a strong first quarter, oil consumption softened in Q2. Weaker deliveries in China and India and growing electric‑vehicle adoption prompted the IEA to lower its 2025 demand‑growth forecast to ~740 kb/d. OPEC’s June report projects demand to expand by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, with non‑OECD Asia accounting for most of the increase. The producer group expects global GDP to grow 2.9 % in 2025 and 3.1 % in 2026, led by India (6.5 %) and China (4.6 %), while Europe lags at 1.0 %.

Supply growth accelerates as non‑OPEC output surges. World oil supply averaged 103.6 mb/d in March and is on track to reach 104.6 mb/d in 2025. Non‑OPEC+ producers contribute the bulk of the increase—about 1.3 mb/d—despite slower U.S. shale growth as companies trim drilling budgets. OPEC+ began unwinding voluntary production cuts earlier than planned, raising its June target by 411 kb/d. Still, actual gains are smaller because some members already exceed quotas. OPEC’s May estimate shows DoC countries boosting output by 0.18 mb/d to 41.23 mb/d. Non‑OPEC supply is forecast to rise by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026.

Prices remain under pressure despite supply discipline. The supply overhang kept prices depressed through most of the quarter. The IEA notes that Brent futures fell by roughly US$10/bbl over April and into May. OPEC’s reference basket slid US$5.36 in May to US$63.62/bbl, while Brent and WTI dropped to around US$64.01 and US$60.94/bbl respectively. Global stocks rose by 32 million barrels in April to 7.717 billion barrels, yet inventories remained below the five‑year average.

Refining margins and runs diverge. Refining margins were mixed. In April, middle‑distillate cracks weakened in the Atlantic Basin while profits for sour crude in Singapore improved. A shift in crude pricing lifted margins to 12‑month highs in late April. OPEC reports that global refinery runs increased by 0.4 mb/d in May to 79.3 mb/d thanks to lower crude prices and strong gasoline demand.

天然气市场分析

Storage recovery tempers prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s June outlook noted that seven consecutive weeks of net injections above 100 billion cubic feet between late April and early June pushed U.S. gas inventories 7 % above the five‑year average. Marketed production averaged 116.8 Bcf/d in Q2 2025—nearly 4.7 Bcf/d higher than a year earlier. With robust supply and mild weather, Henry Hub prices averaged just over US$3/MMBtu in June and are expected to average US$3.40/MMBtu in Q3 2025.

International LNG flows diverge. Europe’s LNG imports remained high due to low storage levels and reduced Russian pipeline supplies; the IEA anticipates purchases will approach record levels. Chinese LNG imports may decline as domestic demand softens and Europe competes aggressively for flexible cargoes.

III. The Geopolitical and Policy Arena

The quarter’s geopolitical landscape was dominated by trade tensions and rising conflict risk. The breakdown of U.S.–China trade negotiations triggered tit‑for‑tat tariffs that weighed on global growth and energy demand. At the same time, OPEC+ producers navigated the delicate process of unwinding production cuts; their accelerated schedule added downward pressure on prices but reinforced their collective discipline.

The most dramatic event was Israel’s 13 June air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran’s subsequent retaliation. Although physical damage was limited, the attacks heightened fears of broader disruption, especially a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz—pathway for roughly one‑quarter of global oil supply. The incidents also led to partial shutdowns of Iran’s South Pars gas field and Israel’s Leviathan gas platform, underscoring the vulnerability of regional energy infrastructure.

IV. The Accelerating, and Contested, Energy Transition

Despite the quarter’s upheaval, the structural shift towards cleaner energy continued. Record electric‑vehicle sales contributed to slower oil‑demand growth, reinforcing expectations that consumption may peak later this decade. Policymakers, meanwhile, seized on supply‑security concerns to emphasise diversification. The IEA’s Gas Market Report stresses that Europe’s increasing reliance on LNG reinforces the need for low‑emission gases and calls for expanded trade in hydrogen and ammonia.

Yet the transition remains contested. The collapse in oil prices made hydrocarbons more competitive and discouraged investment in renewables, while geopolitical risks highlighted the fragility of global supply chains. The coming quarters will test whether governments maintain momentum towards decarbonisation or prioritise energy security above all else.

V. Corporate Landscape: Strategy and Consolidation

Companies responded to Q2 volatility by tightening budgets and focusing on resilience. U.S. shale producers cut capital‑spending guidance by up to 9 %, while some international majors postponed final investment decisions on new projects. Refiners took advantage of lower crude prices to boost runs, improving margins. Mergers and acquisitions remained subdued amid economic uncertainty, though asset sales in North America and the North Sea signalled ongoing portfolio optimisation. The share prices of integrated oil companies recovered somewhat with the mid‑June price rally but remained below pre‑April levels.

VI. Synthesis and Forward Outlook

Q2 2025 was a quarter of extremes. Trade tensions and the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts pushed prices to multi‑year lows; later, a sudden flare‑up of Middle‑Eastern hostilities sent them sharply higher. Demand growth is slowing, yet supply continues to expand, leaving the market comfortably supplied for now. Natural gas markets benefit from plentiful supply and robust storage, although weather disruptions and LNG competition could inject volatility.

The outlook hinges on the path of geopolitical risks and trade negotiations. If the U.S. and China extend their tariff truce and Middle‑Eastern tensions subside, prices may stabilise around current levels. However, a breakdown in talks or further conflict could jolt the market again. Meanwhile, the energy transition marches on—unevenly but inexorably—forcing producers to balance short‑term market management with long‑term strategic repositioning. For investors and policymakers, the message from Q2 2025 is clear: uncertainty is the new normal, and resilience, flexibility and diversification are paramount.